3X multiplier reasonable worst case #H1N1 ?

31 Aug

PR spin = fascinating, on the one hand, game plans need to be put in place, on the other, we dont need wolf crying, nor the other headaches experienced in 1976.

Typical flu season = 30,000-40,000 deaths

Predidents advisory panel presented one plausible scenario of 90,000

Some folks are freaking out on that number, thus PR spin

http://www.webmd.com/cold-and-flu/news/20090825/90-thousand-swine-flu-deaths-possible-not-likely

I wonder what the real multiplier is considering the following.

  • H1N1 has a greater affinity for the young
  • If mid October is realistic, unlike past history, fewer will have been vaccinated, due to early flu season.
  • Conspiracy theorists abound, on the left.. vaccines are evil, on the right, planning for the worst case is politically motivated to build support for healthcare reform. Both conspiracy camps willl reduce folks participation.
  • While H1N1 doesnt appear like it will morph into something worse come Oct 15, what about the spring?
3:1 sounds good from a PR pov, its reasonable enough to raise concern, but not a panic. Yet, for planning purposes, obviously there is a real multiplier the internal folks are using… I wonder what that # is.

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